I am talking about peak oil here. Ok let me start from beginning. While idling in a departmental seminar today, a word caught my attention: Population Explosion. What's its connection with oil peak, you ask. Well here is what I am talking about:
(Figure is from this site, which is coincidentally a very good site if you are interested to read further. This is just a cliff note version of what they have said in details.)
The blue curve here is world's population over the years (starting from year 0 to present) while red curve is world oil-production. Why do they correspond so much with each other, you ask?
Usually when confronted with end of the world oil question, people's response is generally, 'So what, I will walk to work. Big deal.' The thing they don't realize that its not the only way the petroleum product affects our life. As you can read from the above figure that as oil production increased, the world population increased exponentially in response. You think that the increase in transportation is the cause for that? No. The oil came as a source of energy to us and hence facilitated the so called Industrial Revolution in 1700s (and hence resulted in colonization of Asian-African by European countries). Industrial Revolution, as you can guess, has changed our life in a big way. But I digress again (sorry but it relates to so many things that I can't help but digress). We were talking about the World population and its relation with the oil production.
An increase in population would mean an increased demand on basic amenities as food. How did you think the world's agriculture coped with that increase in demand? Yep, you got it: Fertilizers. In other words "Petrochemical Industry" (Petrochemicals are chemical products made from raw materials of petroleum origin). So now you getting the picture? We can support the world's current population because we have these Petrochemical industries. Now think what will happen if the world's Petroleum depletes?
As any Economist, at this point, will happily point to you that market will take care of itself. If there is demand, the technology/science will develop automatically to level up that demand. Thats their so-called market forces theory (or something like that, sorry again but I am not an Economist.). The trouble is that none of these Economist understand the limitation of science and technology. And even if we do develop an energy source (say by some miracle) big enough to replace the oil and some other technology to develop fertilizers, and mind you thats a big if, the amount of time required to replace/alter the current industry systems to that new source would be significant. Otherwise a panic will ensue (though some would argue that panic is already in place and hence all the middle-east problems and west's interest in them) and it will be again a catastrophic event.
Why am I talking about all this? Well just letting you know where this world stands..at the brink of a catastrophe. How today's world leader will handle this, will make tomorrow's history...and needless to say, there are no precedents for this one. At times, History doesn't repeat...at times it's brand new.
PS: Just FYI: The oil was discovered in 1900s and Industrial Revolution started in 1700s. The initial stages of industrial revolution took coal as its energy source till they found a much cleaner source namely, oil. We still have coal to last us for a hundred year or so but then we have to switch all our machinery to coal system. I will personally prefer bullock carts. :)
Usually when confronted with end of the world oil question, people's response is generally, 'So what, I will walk to work. Big deal.' The thing they don't realize that its not the only way the petroleum product affects our life. As you can read from the above figure that as oil production increased, the world population increased exponentially in response. You think that the increase in transportation is the cause for that? No. The oil came as a source of energy to us and hence facilitated the so called Industrial Revolution in 1700s (and hence resulted in colonization of Asian-African by European countries). Industrial Revolution, as you can guess, has changed our life in a big way. But I digress again (sorry but it relates to so many things that I can't help but digress). We were talking about the World population and its relation with the oil production.
An increase in population would mean an increased demand on basic amenities as food. How did you think the world's agriculture coped with that increase in demand? Yep, you got it: Fertilizers. In other words "Petrochemical Industry" (Petrochemicals are chemical products made from raw materials of petroleum origin). So now you getting the picture? We can support the world's current population because we have these Petrochemical industries. Now think what will happen if the world's Petroleum depletes?
As any Economist, at this point, will happily point to you that market will take care of itself. If there is demand, the technology/science will develop automatically to level up that demand. Thats their so-called market forces theory (or something like that, sorry again but I am not an Economist.). The trouble is that none of these Economist understand the limitation of science and technology. And even if we do develop an energy source (say by some miracle) big enough to replace the oil and some other technology to develop fertilizers, and mind you thats a big if, the amount of time required to replace/alter the current industry systems to that new source would be significant. Otherwise a panic will ensue (though some would argue that panic is already in place and hence all the middle-east problems and west's interest in them) and it will be again a catastrophic event.
Why am I talking about all this? Well just letting you know where this world stands..at the brink of a catastrophe. How today's world leader will handle this, will make tomorrow's history...and needless to say, there are no precedents for this one. At times, History doesn't repeat...at times it's brand new.
PS: Just FYI: The oil was discovered in 1900s and Industrial Revolution started in 1700s. The initial stages of industrial revolution took coal as its energy source till they found a much cleaner source namely, oil. We still have coal to last us for a hundred year or so but then we have to switch all our machinery to coal system. I will personally prefer bullock carts. :)
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